—profitable companies attract investors—
A good growth stock represents the profitable company that sells desirable products. The company’s business earnings should grow nearly 6% annually so as to match the growth rate of the U.S. Economy (about 3.5%) and compensate the rate of U.S.Inflation (about 2%); otherwise, the company might do well to liquidate its business and reinvest in securities.
Growth stock investors seek an annual rate of return that exceeds the U.S. Stock Market’s historical 8-10% annual rate of return. The basic approach is to buy stocks at a low price and sell them at a high price, but that is easier said than done. Investors can help realize high returns by selecting stocks from well managed companies, holding the stocks through an adequate growth period, to offset price volatility, and diversifying their stock portfolio.
Evaluating the company
Does the company earn respectable profits with a sustainable business? The answer is yes if the company has a:
- growth rate of earnings that surpasses 6% annually.
- future growth rate of earnings that surpasses 6% annually.
- durable business with a sustainable growth rate.
Growth rate. The company that recognizes and satisfies the needs of customers will accumulate sales with the demand for its product. Profitability is the combination of sales growth coupled with efficient management of business expenses. In other words, the profitable company has a respectable growth rate of sales with respect to time, respectable rate of earnings with respect to sales, and consequently, a respectable growth rate of earnings with respect to time.
Earnings are the net income from sales after payment of expenses. The growth rate of earnings matches the growth rate of sales when the company runs its business in a consistent manner. Both sales and earnings should grow annually by at least 6% to outperform the national economy and compensate for the effect of inflation. Growth investors typically monitor the company’s earnings per share (EPS) on a quarterly basis. The EPS should grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6%, or more, as determined from at least 5 years of historical data. When evaluating a company’s earnings, consider the possibility that management is manipulating the EPS to earn higher compensation.
Future growth rate. The earnings estimate is an analyst’s quarterly or annual forecast of the EPS. The estimate is more uncertain when the forecast extends to 3-5 years. Investors use the earnings estimate to track a company’s performance and to derive a future range of share prices. The growth investor should seek companies with earnings estimates above the 6% compound annual growth rate.
Durable business. Any company can be driven out of business by an economic disaster in the entire industry, strong competition, and a declining market for the company’s product. The durable company has sufficient financial strength to survive hard times coupled with the competitive advantages needed to maintain its market position. The sustainable growth rate is a measure of the company’s capacity for earnings growth, assuming there’s room for growth of sales in the product’s market. An analysis of market opportunity is used to estimate the future demand for the company’s product.
Evaluating the stock
If a profitable company attracts investors, its stock price will rise with investors’ demand for shares. The attractive stock may be detected by a:
- favorable valuation
- price momentum
- projected annual return above 10%
Favorable valuation. Growth investors place a high value on the company’s EPS for the simple reason that EPS represents the net income that generates an investment return. The 2 sources of investment return are dividends and capital gains. If the company choses to pay dividends, they are derived from the net income. Capital gains are the amount of profit from an increase in share price generated by investor-demand.
The price of a growth-stock tends to increase with the rise in EPS. This relationship is measured by the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E or PE). The current P/E is today’s price divided by the EPS of the past 12 months. The current P/E reveals what investors are willing to pay for each dollar of company earnings. The relative P/E is a ratio of the current P/E to past P/Es or to some benchmark P/E such as the average P/E of the stock market. At parity, the relative P/E is 1.0. Stocks below parity are undervalued by market participants and may be trading at prices that favor buyers. Conversely, stocks above parity are overvalued and may be trading at prices that favor sellers. There are other ways of assessing the value of a stock such as the calculation of fair value performed by stock analysts.
Price momentum. Another characteristic of the growth stock is that its share price is likely to continue in the direction of an upward trend as long as there’s a demand for shares. A review of historical prices will reveal the direction of price momentum.
Projected annual return. The reason that growth investors should seek returns above the 8%-10% total return of the stock market is that an alternative investment in index funds will capture the market’s return. One way of projecting the stock’s annual return is to multiply the future EPS by a P/E ratio to obtain the future share price. The difference from today’s price represents the future capital gain. Factoring in the stock’s dividend yield will give the projected annual return.
The primary hazards of incurring a loss are,
- company risk
- market risk
- portfolio risk
Company risk. Poor management can weaken the company and reduce its profitability. A fundamental analysis of the company, which includes a review of the financial statements, can help reduce the possibility of investing in a poorly managed company. Periodic reviews of financial statements and company news are needed to reassess the company’s management efficiency and help prevent a serious capital loss from investment.
Market risk. Volatility is the moment-to-moment fluctuation in share price that results from trading activity in the stock market. Greater volatility produces greater upside and downside risks. Upside risk is the potential gain from an investment. It represents a reasoned guess of the future peak share price. Downside risk is the potential loss. Volatility, upside risk, and downside risk are calculated in several ways. Generally speaking, riskier investments should be held for longer time periods to improve the chance of earning an estimated return.
Portfolio risk. A concentrated portfolio has a large investment in one stock compared to others. Any capital loss from the largest holding could seriously degrade the investment return of the whole portfolio. The potential impact of capital loss from a large investment can be reduced by re-allocating the principal among stocks that are diversified with respect to industry and company size.
A good growth stock outperforms the stock market because the company’s earnings grow faster than the Economy. One way detecting a good growth stock is to find the company that has a good sales record, bright future for earnings, and durability. Then determine what value other investors place on the stock in today’s market and future years. A potential capital gain of 10% or higher is a good growth investment.
Copyright © 2015 Douglas R. Knight