Investment strategy of the SmallTrades ETF Portfolio

February 14, 2014

An index ETF is designed to capture the investment returns from a financial market.  The SmallTrades ETF Portfolio (“Portfolio”) uses index ETFs to invest in several financial markets.  The goal of the Portfolio is to earn returns at a faster rate than possible by investing in risk-free bonds or the broad market of U.S. stocks, thereby ensuring that the accumulation of returns outpaces the inflation of prices in the American economy.  Success is measured by the following benchmark indices:

Investment strategy

The Portfolio is a high-risk, high-return investment in ETFs that duplicate well-established market indices for global stocks, U.S. bonds, U.S. real estate investment trusts, and gold bullion.  Twenty five percent of the portfolio’s market value is allocated to each index.  The ETFs generate at least 99% of the portfolio’s value and any remaining value is stored in a money market fund.  The ETFs will be held indefinitely except when faced with the advantage of replacing one with a more suitable ETF for the same index.

Table of holdings

ETF trading symbol Market Allocation
 AGG   U.S. bonds 25%
 GLD   Gold bullion 12.5%
 SGOL     Gold bullion 12.5%
 VNQ     U.S. real estate investment trusts 25%
 VT  Global stocks 25%

Expected return

Unfortunately there is no 50-100 year history of ETF performance that enables the forecast of an expected return.  To compensate for this limitation, two models were used to test the allocation plan shown in the table of holdings.  In one model of the 15-year recovery from the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the allocation plan outperformed the U.S. stock market.  In the other model of the 5-year recovery from the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the allocation plan underperformed the U.S. stock market.  Among both time periods, the lowest return of the model portfolio was 8.5%.

  • MARKETS portfolio of financial-market returns from 1997 to 2011: The global-stocks market was simulated by a mixture of 75% U.S. large capitalization stocks and 25% emerging markets stocks.  Trading and management fees were excluded from the model.  The annualized return of the portfolio was 8.5% in comparison to the 5.7% annualized return of U.S. large capitalization stocks.
  • ETF portfolio of historical prices from 2008-2013: Trading fees, but not management fees, were included in the calculations (– management fees are charged in the primary market before ETFs are listed in the stock market).  The annualized return of the portfolio was 10.9% in comparison to the 17.8% annualized return of SPY, an ETF that tracks the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return.

Risk management

The holding period will be at least 5 years.  Fluctuation in market prices is the main risk of investing in index ETFs.  The likelihood of incurring a loss from a declining market decreases as the length of the holding period increases (– e.g., the risk of loss from stocks and bonds declines by 50% as the length of the holding period increases from 1 to 5 years; and, the risk declines by 80% when the holding period is extended to 10 years (1)).

The Portfolio will be rebalanced as needed to maintain the allocation plan within an acceptable limit of 28% error.  The Portfolio is concentrated in 4 markets and losses may occur when one or several markets decline.  The 25% allocation plan assigns equal weightings to each financial market in order to smooth the effect of market declines.  After accounting for trading fees, the strategy of rebalancing a large allocation error is more cost-effective than using a rebalancing schedule.

The Portfolio holdings are investable, have established reputations, charge low management fees, and are safely structured.  Although there’s no guarantee that the index ETFs will sustain their historical performance, the stock market, bond market, and real estate market ETFs provide diversified investments in underlying assets.  The risk of investing in these ETFs is lower than the risk of investing in an underlying asset.  Gold bullion ETFs are non-diversified investments in the volatile gold market.  Gold bullion is theoretically susceptible to physical damage by theft or fire.  This risk is diminished by investing in two funds, GLD and SGOL, that store the bullion in separate vaults located in London and Lucerne.

The investor’s tax burden can be reduced by holding these index ETFs in a tax-deferred retirement account.

Copyright © 2013 Douglas R. Knight

References

1.           James B. Cloonan, A lifetime strategy for investing.  American Association of Individual Investors, Chicago, 201


Modified holdings, January 2014

February 5, 2014

The Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) replaces the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) in the SmallTrades ETF Portfolio.  The revised portfolio will be rebalanced as needed to correct a 28% error in asset allocation. 

Rationale

The investment performance of VWO is declining due to unfavorable conditions in the emerging markets.  Political turmoil and fragile economies in several regions of the emerging markets account for declining global productivity (1,2,3).  The impact on financial markets is shown by a slight downtrend in emerging markets stock indices compared to an upsurge in developed markets stock indices (chart 1, ref 4).

chart 1.  Line graphs represent 3 series of cumulative returns from an investment of $1 (USD) in 2003.  The cumulative returns of the All-World Markets, Developed Markets, and Emerging Markets were computed from the total annual returns of the FTSE Global Equity Index Series.   The All-World Markets were comprised of Developed Markets (approximately 75% weighting) and Emerging Markets (approximately 25% weighting).  Frontier Markets were excluded.

chart 1. Line graphs represent 3 series of cumulative returns from an investment of $1 (USD) in 2003. The cumulative returns of the All-World Markets, Developed Markets, and Emerging Markets were computed from the total annual returns of the FTSE Global Equity Index Series. The All-World Markets were comprised of Developed Markets (approximately 75% weighting) and Emerging Markets (approximately 25% weighting). Frontier Markets were excluded.

The investment strategy of VWO is to track the FTSE Emerging Markets index while VT seeks to track the FTSE All-World Markets index.  Chart 2 (below) is similar to Chart 1 in showing that VWO’s market prices are gradually declining while VT’s prices are steadily climbing.

chart 2

chart 2

The replacement of VWO by VT in the SmallTrades ETF Portfolio will satisfy the risk-management strategy of diversification.  The revised Portfolio might outperform the benchmark S&P 500 total return index under favorable market conditions in years to come.  Here are several lines of supportive evidence:

1)      A hybrid stocks index of U.S. large-capitalization stocks (75% weighting) and emerging market stocks (25% weighting) yielded an annualized return of 6.1% compared to an 5.7% annualized return from the benchmark U.S. large-capitalization stocks.  The time period was 1997-2011.

2)      A model portfolio of the hybrid stocks, U.S. bonds, U.S. REITs, and precious metals indices yielded an annualized return of 8.5% compared to the benchmark 5.7% return.   Equal amounts were invested in every index at the beginning of the 1997-2011 holding period.

3)      VT tracks the FTSE Global All-Cap index.

4)      Charts 3 and 4 ( below) summarize the 5 year performance of the revised SmallTrades ETF Portfolio as determined by an updated ETFportfolioDESIGNER2.  The best rebalancing strategy is to correct a 28% “rebalance signal”.

chart 3

chart 3

chart 4

chart 4

Portfolio Mechanics

The SmallTrades ETF Portfolio is modified by substituting VT for VWO without changing the original allocation plan.  Twenty five percent of the portfolio’s market value is allocated to four asset classes represented by VT, VNQ, AGG, and the combined GLD-SGOL holdings –[comment: GLD and SGOL are operationally equivalent except that they store gold bullion in different vaults located in London and Zurich.  The split vaults help protect from physical damage and theft in one vault]–.  The Portfolio will be rebalanced when any asset class deviates outside the 72-128% range of expected market values.

References

1.           Emerging markets, Locus of extremity.  Developing economies struggle to cope with a new world. The Economist.  2/1/2014

2.           Paul Wiseman and Joshua Freed.  Markets staggered by global concerns. Associated Press. 1/25/2014.

3.           Emerging economies; When giants slow down. The Economist  7/27/2013.

4.           FTSE Factsheet.  12/31/2013.


Design of the investable ETF portfolio

August 28, 2013

[revised on September 3, 2013 and February 3, 2014.  The latest revision is an updated ETFportfolioDESIGNER2 that includes Vanguard’s Total World Stock ETF (VT).  It was necessary to reset the DESIGNER’s time period to 2009 through 2013.  Appropriate changes were made in the following discussion.]

Summary

I ‘like’ a portfolio of exchange traded funds (ETFs) that are listed in the New York Stock Exchange by trading symbols AGG, GLD, VNQ, and VWO [VT is an alternative to VWO]. Equal portions of capital are allocated to each fund. The best way to manage the portfolio is by rebalancing the ETFs. Ordinary investors can be cautiously optimistic about this high risk portfolio after reviewing the following information:

Model

Among previously tested portfolios, a 4-sector model held hypothetical investments in market indices for emerging markets stocks, U.S. bonds, U.S. REITs, and global precious metals.  The model was not an investable portfolio.

Conversion

The 4-sector model was converted to an investable portfolio by substituting index ETFs for the market indices and assigning equal weightings (ref 1) to the ETFs. The big advantage of choosing index ETFs is their ease of trading in the stock market (ref 2).  The objective of the investable portfolio, hereafter called the SmallTradesETFportfolio, is to outperform the U.S. stock market in the long term.

The conversion began by screening funds according to geography and asset class (ref 3).  Selected ETFs were compared to their financial markets, appraised for risk, and tested for optimal portfolio mechanics.

Comparisons.  Chart 1 shows the time course of total returns from ETFs and financial markets. The total returns are charted as monthly percentages of change in market value based on price changes and cash distributions (see endnote) .

ETFpf1

Chart 1. Time course of total returns: All panels show the time course of monthly total returns from a market sector (black dashed line), older ETF (solid blue line), and newer ETF (solid orange line). ETFs are identified by 3-letter trading symbols. Total returns were set to 0% at inception of the newer ETF.

In chart 1, any spread between an ETF and its market sector illustrates the difference in investment performance. Smaller spreads, and therefore closer matches to sector performance, occurred among ETFs aligned to the precious metals and emerging markets stock sectors. Wider spreads appeared when AGG outperformed the U.S. Bond sector by 3-15 percentage points during the 2008 Credit crisis; also when VNQ and REZ consistently underperformed the Equity REIT sector by an average 8 percentage points.

Correlations. Chart 2 shows the correlation of returns between an ETF and its market index.

ETFpf2

Chart 2, Correlation of total returns: ETFs are identified by 3-letter trading symbols. All panels compare the monthly returns of ETFs to their corresponding market sector. Monthly returns were calculated as a percentage change in market value that includes the accumulation of cash distributions from underlying holdings. The identity line shows hypothetically equal returns. “r” values are correlation coefficients for the relationship between ETF and sector returns. “r” values were not calculated for newest funds, CORP and GLTR, due to the scarcity of monthly returns.

In chart 2, the correlation coefficient (“r”) signifies the degree of alignment between concurrent monthly returns. If r were 1.0, the data would lie on an identity line where fund returns match the market returns. All r values in chart 2 were exceptionally high, which supports the visual impression from chart 1 that ETFs traced the time course of their market sectors. All of chart 2’s data except those for AGG were closely aligned to an identity line. About 12 of AGG’s monthly returns outperformed the U.S. Bond market during the 2008 Credit crisis and appear as outliers to their line of identity. The few outliers exerted no practical effect on AGG’s correlation coefficient.

ETF appraisals. The SmallTradesETFportfolio contains healthy, wealthy ETFs with proven ease of trading. Every ETF is eligible for holding in a tax-deferred brokerage account and otherwise offers a low tax burden when held in a taxable account (exception: returns from the precious metal held by GLD are taxed at the higher rate for ordinary income rather than lower rate for long-term capital gains). Here are the investment strategies and risks of the funds, with a link to their scorecards (ref 4):

  • AGG (iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF) invests 95% of its capital in a basket of U.S. investment grade bonds that reflect the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. AGG receives fixed income and capital gains from the bonds. The fixed income is derived from payments of interest and returns of principal. Investment grade bonds are less likely to default on payments of fixed income than non-investment grade (‘junk’) bonds. Investment grade bonds generally pay lower interest than junk bonds and are low-risk investments (ref 5).
  • VWO (Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF) invests 95% of its capital in a representative sample of stocks listed in the FTSE Emerging Markets Index. Emerging markets stocks are more volatile and less liquid than U.S. stocks. Stocks are generally high-risk investments that reward investors with payments of dividends and capital gains. VWO invests in emerging market stocks which have characteristically higher risk and higher returns than developed market stocks (ref 5).
  • VT (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF) invests in stocks issued in the emerging and developed markets.  VT is an alternative to VWO.
  • VNQ (Vanguard REIT ETF) invests in real estate properties by purchasing shares of real estate investment trusts (REITs). Equity REITs are companies who invest pooled money into the ownership of real estate and distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to shareholders. Equity REITs are considered low-risk, high-return investments (ref 5). Because VNQ concentrates on real estate, its primary risk is a decline in the real estate market.
  • GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) is a physical commodity fund that invests all capital in gold bullion. Gold only provides income when sold in the market for a profit. Investors typically buy gold bullion as an insurance policy against the devaluation of currency (ref 5). GLD shareholders risk losses from declining prices and damage or theft of the bullion.

Portfolio mechanics

Market forces continually change the value of a portfolio either to the benefit or detriment of the investor. The investor’s choices are to make no adjustments (“buy-and-hold”), sell rising assets to buy declining assets (“rebalance”), sell declining assets to buy rising assets (“reallocation”), or revise the investment strategy (ref 6).

The choices to buy-and-hold or rebalance the SmallTradesETFportfolio were examined by using a computer-assisted program to test a set of 5-year historical returns from the ETFs [the computer-assisted program is outdated and therefore replaced by ETFportfolioDESIGNER2.  The discussions of Tables 1 and 2 are outdated, but they remain instructive]. The buy-and-hold strategy was to purchase each ETF with 25% of the total invested money and automatically reinvest the cash distributions. The rebalance strategy was divided into 2 plans for correcting the buy-and-hold portfolio.  The scheduled plan made regular corrections during the life of the portfolio. The signaled plan made irregular corrections depending on when the holdings drifted from the allocation plan by an assigned error signal (ref 7).

The data in table 1 show that all choices outperformed the benchmark investment in U.S. stocks.  Both rebalancing plans enhanced the portfolio CAGR of the buy-and-hold strategy, namely by 1.3 percentage points when rebalanced yearly and by 2 percentage points when rebalancing a 32% allocation error.

ETFpf3

COLUMN HEADINGS: The investment strategies for the ETF Portfolio are “Buy-and-hold”, “Rebalance #1”, and “Rebalance #2”. The “Benchmark” portfolio is an index of the U.S. Stock Market.
ROW HEADINGS: “Rebalancing plan” shows the best schedule for “Rebalance #1” and best error signal for “Rebalance #2”. “Rebalance episodes” are the total number of rebalances. “Final market value” is computed from the weighted market returns. “Portfolio CAGR” is the compound annual growth rate; higher CAGRs reflect higher returns. “Sharpe ratio” is an adjusted annual rate of return; higher ratios reflect higher returns.
ASSUMPTIONS: Every portfolio is funded with $10,000 and 25% of the $10,000 is allocated to each holding. There are no fees for financial services, all cash distributions are automatically reinvested, and the portfolio holdings are never withdrawn.

Efficient investment. The total returns in table 1 were earned under the best of circumstances because there was no payment of fees for financial services and plenty of money was used for making the initial investment. Without fees, all levels of initial investment are equally efficient in yielding a return. But additional fees create a penalty margin that reduces returns by as much as 25 percentage points with $1,000 investments and 2 percentage points with $10,000 investments (ref 8).

So, how might trading fees and initial investment affect the SmallTradesETFportfolio? Table 2 demonstrates the efficiency of earning returns based on the initial investment and a $10 trading fee.

ETFpf4

The data are total returns as measured by CAGR; higher CAGRs reflect higher returns. All trading fees are $10/trade.
ROW HEADINGS: “Initial investment” is the total amount of money spent on creating the portfolio, including trading fees. “Buy-and-hold” means that no trading occurred during the 5-year holding period, 2008-2012. “Rebalance #1” is a plan to rebalance the holdings on an annual basis. “Rebalance #2” is a plan to rebalance the portfolio when a holding drifts from the allocation plan by a 32% difference.

In table 2, the maximal returns of the buy-and-hold and rebalanced portfolios were achieved when the initial investment reached $15,000. There was no advantage to rebalancing the portfolio with only $2,000 of invested capital.

Financial services fees. ETF managers charge an annual expense ratio to specialists in the primary market, not to ordinary investors in the secondary market.  The expense ratio reduces the net asset value of ETF shares in the primary market and the net asset value determines ETF share prices in the stock market (ref 2). Ordinary investors may pay an advisor’s fee when they are clients of a financial institution (do-it-yourself investors take pride in avoiding this fee). The typical advisory fee, about 1% of the annual portfolio value, reduces the total return of the portfolio by an amount that can be estimated in the computer-assisted program.

Recommendation

The SmallTradesETF Portfolio is designed for risk-tolerant investors who seek to outperform the U.S. Stock Market over a time period of many years. Each ETF tracks a unique sector of the financial markets with proven transparency, durability, and liquidity of fund operations. In terms of risk management, rebalancing the holdings helps protect from losses incurred during market declines. An initial investment of $4,000 is needed to gain the advantage of rebalancing the portfolio. Better results are obtained by investing at least $10,000.   I prefer using a 30% 28% rebalancing signal (rather than a schedule) to rebalance the SmallTradesETFportfolio. The signaled rebalancing method is easy to obtain and use by clicking on this link, Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio.

Cautious optimism

Similar portfolios are advocated in newspapers (ref 9) and books (refs 10-12). The unique features of the SmallTradesETF portfolio are its simple allocation plan and tested rebalancing strategy. A major disadvantage is the uncertainty about future market returns. Fifteen years of historical data for a model portfolio and 5 years of historical data for an ETF portfolio are unreliably predictive of future returns (ref 10). Consider that ¼th of the Portfolio is invested in emerging markets stocks and that today’s emerging markets are in decline after attaining a historical peak (refs 13,14). How long will these markets decline? The optimist could argue that over 75% of the world’s population lives in the emerging economies where there’s tremendous capacity for growth. Today’s emerging economies have nearly half of the world’s GDP and their share of the global GDP seems to be growing despite blips in the trajectory  (ref 14).

Endnote:  Cash distributions are made by fund managers to fund shareholders. The typical sources of cash distributions are dividends and capital gains earned from the fund’s underlying assets.

Copyright © 2014 Douglas R. Knight

References

1. Beginners’ Guide to Asset Allocation, Diversification, and Rebalancing, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC.gov/investor/pubs/assetallocation, Modified: 08/28/2009.
2. ETF structure, Small Trades Journal, a blog at WordPress.com.
3. XTF, ETF experts. XTF.com/Research/.
4. #ETF-scorecard, Small Trades Journal, a blog at WordPress.com.
5. Asset classes, Small Trades Journal, a blog at WordPress.com.
6. Jason Van Bergen, 6 Asset Allocation Strategies That Work. ©2013, Investopedia US, A Division of ValueClick, Inc., October 16, 2009.
7. #SmallTradesPortfolioREBALANCER, Small Trades Journal, a blog at WordPress.com.
8. Beware of trading fees, Small Trades Journal, a blog at WordPress.com.
9. Anna Prior. A Portfolio That’s as 2-sector as One, Two, Three. The Wall Street Journal, July 7, 2013.
10. William Bernstein. The Four Pillars of Investing: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio, McGraw-Hill, 2002.
11. Mebane T. Faber and Eric W. Richardson. Top of the Class: A review of The Ivy Portfolio. 4/6/2009, Advisor Perspectives, DShort.com.
12. John C. Bogle, The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Hoboken, 2007.
13. Emerging economies: When giants slow down. Jul 27th 2013. The Economist.
14. Emerging vs developed economies: Power shift. Aug 4th 2011, 17:34 by The Economist online.


#ETFscorecard_AGG, iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF

June 28, 2013

AGG holds a portfolio of investment-grade U.S. bonds and distributes monthly dividends.  The following profile shows that AGG is an established fund that operates at a high rate of turnover.

AGGprofile

The AGG scorecard (below) reveals a wealthy, experienced index fund that invests in a well-developed market for bonds.  The fund is tax inefficient due to the high rate of turnover of portfolio holdings.  The risks to portfolio underperformance are 1) erroneous sampling of the bond index, 2) erroneous judgment in management of the portfolio holdings, and 3) generic risks of investing in the bond market.

AGGscorecard

Fund operations

AGG is a registered investment company for tax purposes.  Its strategy is to invest 95% of capital in a diversified basket of U.S. investment grade bonds that serve as a representative sample of the benchmark index.  The portfolio’s profile is that of an average A credit rating of the issuers, average intermediate term bonds, average 4.86% effective duration, average 4.06% weighted coupon, and average $107.46 weighted price. The remaining 5% of capital resides in cash-equivalent securities and bonds excluded from the index.  Fund management may lend up to 33% of the underlying securities to outside investors.  High portfolio turnover rate will increase the Fund’s operating expenses.

The benchmark Index measures the performance of the total U.S. investment grade bond market.  The bonds must be USD denominated, non-convertible, and have a fixed rate.  The Index is updated monthly.

Fluctuating interest rates in the bond market may reduce the investment performance of the Fund.  In the case of declining interest rates, the Fund may replace Called bonds with those of lower interest rates.  During periods of rising interest rates, long-term bonds with low interest rates will effectively reduce the Fund’s income. Rising interest rates can also lower the market value of the bonds.  A portion of the Fund’s mortgage-backed securities are not issued by government agencies and are therefore not protected against default.

AGG is a good investment for diversifying your ETF portfolio.


ETF #scorecard: iShares JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Fund (nyse:EMB)

February 1, 2013

Summary

EMB is an index fund that invests in bonds issued by governments and businesses located in the emerging markets.  An income stream of about 3.8% annual yield is distributed to shareholders in monthly payments.  Exposure to EMB’s portfolio incurs the risks of geographic region, bond market fluctuation, and portfolio management.  EMB holds a riskier portfolio than the bond index fund AGG.

Snapshot

profile

Scorecard

scorecard

About the Index

The underlying index tracks the total return of fixed-rate and floating-rate bonds issued by governments and corporations in approximately 31 countries tagged as the emerging markets.  The bonds are U.S. dollar denominated and non-convertible.  The index is market-value weighted and rebalanced every month.

About the Fund

Strategy.  EMB’s objective is to match the performance of the Index before deduction of administrative costs, which are about 0.6% of the net asset value.  EMB’s strategy is to invest at least 90% of assets in securities of the underlying index by selecting a representative sample of the Index.  The fund may occasionally invest up to 20% of assets in various derivatives and cash-equivalent assets.

Tracking error.  Since inception the average annual total return of the fund’s net asset value underperformed the Index by a difference of 0.81 percentage points.  The cumulative net asset value underperformed the Index by a difference of 4.68 percentage points.

Primary risks:

  • Issuers may not pay the interest or repay the principal, especially if the bond is rated below investment grade.  About 54% of EMB’s bonds are rated below investment grade.
  • Bonds with longer maturity dates are more susceptible to loss of value from an increase in interest rate.
  • Issuers of callable bonds may repay the lender before maturity when the interest rates are declining.  The Fund may lose income by necessity of reinvesting the principal at a lower interest rate.

EMB’s portfolio is riskier than that of iShare’s AGG.  Here’s the comparison:

vs AGG

Price history. The following chart shows that EMB’s share price (thick blue line) increased by 17.7% compared to AGG’s (thin purple line) 7.3% climb during the past 5 years.

prices

The bond-buying program of central banks reduced the interest rates of government bonds, thus reducing the interest earned from investment grade bonds.  The reduced interest rates pushed bond prices up and bond yields down.  Today’s (1/30/2013) high bond prices are vulnerable to decreasing when the interest rates start to climb (i.e., interest rate risk).  The same reasoning applies to an increase in the bond funds’ weighted average coupon and effective duration.1   Ways of managing interest rate risk include

  • selling bonds now and venturing into other assets such as stocks.
  • reducing the effective duration of a bond portfolio
  • investing in high-yield corporate bonds and emerging-market government bonds

Emerging markets generate 40% of the global GDP and have only 10% sovereign debt, making it a good bet that emerging markets have enough revenue for debt service.1  From a survey of 141 emerging-market banks, results indicate that lending conditions are improving in the emerging markets despite a declining demand for commercial real estate loans and a growing number of non-performing loans.2,3 

Copyright © 2013 Douglas R. Knight

References

1.           Joe Light. The risk of safety. The Wall Street Journal, 1/25/2013.

2.           Sudeep Reddy.  Emerging-market loan view perks up. The Wall Street Journal, 1/29/2013.

3.           Emerging Markets Bank Lending Conditions Survey – 2012Q4.  IIF, Institute of International Finance.


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